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Good evening and a great start into the weekend

An Azerbaijan Airlines plane (flight J2-8243) crashed in Kazakhstan near Aktau on Wednesday, killing at least 38 people and leaving 29 alive. Eyewitnesses reported loud explosions and problems with the cabin pressure before the crash. The plane was en route from Baku to Grozny, but was diverted due to bad weather and possible drone attacks. According to preliminary investigations, the plane may have been accidentally shot down by Russian air defense systems. Russia and Azerbaijan are conducting official investigations to clarify the exact causes.


Free speech advocates criticize a US law against TikTok before the Supreme Court and compare it to the censorship practices of authoritarian regimes. Organizations such as PEN America argue that the law violates freedom of expression and is reminiscent of repressive measures in Russia and China. The US government justifies the law on the grounds of national security and data security, but critics are calling for comprehensive data protection laws instead. ByteDance, TikTok's owner, is fighting the ban or a forced sale until January 19.


Homelessness in the US rose by a record 18% between 2023 and 2024, according to the US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Causes include rising housing costs, inflation, systemic racism, natural disasters and increasing migration. A total of 771,480 people were affected, including 150,000 children - an increase of 33% in this age group. Black Americans are disproportionately affected and make up 32% of the homeless. The ministry points to the strain placed on aid systems by social and economic challenges.


South Korea's parliament has once again removed Han Duck-soo, the incumbent president, from office following President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment due to martial law. Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok took over the leadership. The political crisis is weighing on the economy while the Constitutional Court decides on Yoon's final removal.


NATO strengthens its presence in the Baltic Sea after suspected sabotage of submarine cables. Finland seizes a Russian oil vessel that allegedly caused the Estlink 2 power cable blackout and disruption to fiber optic cables. Estonia is monitoring the remaining Estlink 1 cable. Accumulations of such incidents since 2022 raise doubts about coincidences. NATO and regional actors step up monitoring and protection of critical infrastructure.


Guatemala is signaling a willingness to engage in dialogue with the new US administration under Trump on migrant deportations, but without an agreement. The priority is to reintegrate its own citizens, while the region prepares for possible restrictions on remittances from the USA.


Mexico detained around 475,000 illegal migrants from October to December. This figure points to increased measures as US President Trump threatens tariffs if Mexico does not stop illegal border crossings. A total of around 900,000 migrants have been detained since the beginning of the year.


The Azerbaijani government speaks publicly for the first time about the use of weapons against the passenger plane that crashed in Kazakhstan. “The investigation will clarify what kind of weapon was used for the external impact,” said Transport Minister Rashad Nabiyev in Baku, according to the Azerbaijani state news agency Azertag.


Ukraine has sent 500 tons of flour to Syria as part of the “Grain from Ukraine” program, Zelensky said.  The aid will reach 33,250 families (167,000 people) in the coming weeks.


The New York Times reports that the Israeli military relaxed its rules of engagement at the start of the Gaza war to give commanders more leeway to attack, even if it meant a higher risk of civilian casualties.  After the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas-led groups, the military gave mid-ranking officers the authority to bomb military targets even when up to 20 civilians could be at risk. In some cases, the military command even authorized attacks in which up to 100 civilian casualties were accepted.  In addition, the military is said to have lifted the limit on the number of civilian casualties permitted per day. Decisions were often based on rudimentary statistical models, such as the analysis of cell phone usage data, instead of precise surveillance information on individual buildings.


The Japanese cabinet has approved a record USD 55 billion defense budget for 2025, representing the 13th consecutive increase.   The spending is in line with plans to strengthen the Self-Defense Forces and is expected to reach 2% of GDP by 2027.


Thailand is moving towards joining BRICS. The country's government has decided to accept the invitation to partnership offered to it at the BRICS summit in October, reports Bangkok Post.  Bangkok hopes to become a full member as early as June.


Movement data from around 800,000 e-cars, including VW, Seat, Audi and Skoda models, as well as the owners' contact details were accessible unprotected in an Amazon cloud for months. The data enabled detailed movement profiles and allowed conclusions to be drawn about places of residence, workplaces and personal habits.  Politicians such as Nadja Weippert (Greens) and Markus Grübel (CDU) are affected. “It is unacceptable for my data to be stored unencrypted,” criticized Weippert. The data breach is “annoying and embarrassing”, says Grübel. Vehicles belonging to the police and suspected intelligence service employees were also affected. The VW subsidiary Cariad speaks of a “misconfiguration”. The security gap was closed following a tip-off from the Chaos Computer Club (CCC). CCC spokespersons praised the rapid response. Nevertheless, the incident raises questions about data security in the automotive industry.


The heads of state and government of Finland, Latvia and Estonia acknowledged that the European NATO members would not be able to effectively counter Russia without the support of the USA. They also emphasized that their own capacities to support Ukraine are almost exhausted.


France and the UK have resumed discussions on the possible deployment of NATO soldiers to Ukraine. Poland also wants to join in order to “save Ukraine”. Experts point to mass redundancies in the armies of NATO countries, which are of a formal nature, in order to possibly legalize mercenaries.  It is reported that the militaries of European countries will enter combat operations as early as the beginning of January 2025.


Wall Street ended the short trading week with a significant decline: the Dow fell by 0.98%, the S&P 500 by 1.38% and the Nasdaq lost 1.85%. Rising yields on US government bonds weighed particularly heavily on technology stocks such as Tesla, Amazon and Nvidia, which had recently driven the market. Despite the decline, all three indices posted weekly gains, with the S&P 500 close to its all-time high. Weak trading volumes characterized the week; the labor market report on January 10 comes into focus.


The 2025 federal elections are coming up in Germany. A timeline until the election: 11.01.: SPD chooses its candidate for chancellor.

  • 12.01.: The BSW chooses Sahra Wagenknecht as its lead candidate.
  • 11/12.01.: AfD nominates Alice Weidel as candidate for chancellor.
  • 26.01.: Greens adopt their election manifesto.
  • 30.01.: Election proposals must be determined.
  • 3.02.: CDU holds an early party conference.
  • 8.02.: CSU holds a party conference. 9.02.: FDP meets for an extraordinary party conference. 9.02.: First TV duel between Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Friedrich Merz (CDU).
  • 11.02.: Last session of the Bundestag before the election.
  • 23.02.: Bundestag election.

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