Good Morning and Happy Halloween!

 

• In his election campaign, Trump appeals to voters to ask themselves whether they are better off today than they were four years ago, a tried and tested political argument. However, he is overlooking some facts: In the last year of his term in 2020, life expectancy in the USA fell by 1.8 years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which also caused a severe economic slump. Despite recovery thanks to government aid, the economy was smaller at the end of 2020 than at the end of 2019. However, if you compare 2019 with today, there are some parallels, which is seen as a success of measures to mitigate the pandemic. Adjusted for inflation, GDP is 11.5% higher than in 2019 and growth is similar to the Trump era. Inflation remains a key issue in Trump's campaign, even though inflation has now fallen and incomes have kept pace with inflation. The unemployment rate is now slightly lower than before the pandemic and household wealth has continued to rise in the Biden era.
  
• North Korea conducted a new test of an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday, which Kim Jong Un described as an “appropriate military measure” against enemies who threaten the country's security. The test broke records: the missile flew for 87 minutes and covered a distance of 1,000 kilometers on a steep, so-called “lofted” trajectory, reaching an altitude of 7,000 kilometers before crashing into the sea west of the Japanese island of Okushiri. The USA, Japan and South Korea strongly condemned the test. Seoul warned that North Korea could possibly receive missile technology from Russia for its support in the Ukraine war. Analysts suspect that North Korea could increase its weapons performance cost-effectively through this cooperation.
  
• China's industrial production grew again in October for the first time in six months, indicating the positive impact of Beijing's recent stimulus measures. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 49.8 to 50.1, while the services PMI also increased slightly to 50.2. Experts see this as the first signs of a recovery, supported by increased government spending and incentives to boost the world's second-largest economy. Although exports have fallen recently, domestic demand has risen, indicating a return of confidence in the market. Large companies in particular reported an improved situation.
  
  
• Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced that he was optimistic that a ceasefire with Israel could be reached in the coming days. According to a leaked draft published by Kan, Israel's public broadcaster, Israel is expected to withdraw its forces from Lebanon within the first week of the planned 60-day ceasefire. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem also declared his willingness to cease hostilities if Israel wants to end the conflict, but Israel has not yet agreed to any proposal. According to the report, the proposal also provides for the implementation of UN resolutions 1701 and 1559, which, among other things, call for the disarmament of militant groups in the south of Lebanon. Parallel to these efforts in Lebanon, there are also diplomatic initiatives to de-escalate the Gaza conflict.
  
  
• The violent typhoon Kong-rey has hit Taiwan and caused considerable damage. Financial markets were closed, hundreds of flights were canceled and rail traffic was reduced. Around half a million households are without power, and one person was killed in central Taiwan when a truck crashed into a fallen tree. Kong-rey hit the coast with wind speeds of over 250 km/h, making it the biggest typhoon since 1996. Eastern Taitung was particularly badly affected, where gale-force winds of over 260 km/h were measured. In advance, 10,000 people were evacuated and 36,000 soldiers were put on standby. Taiwan's largest semiconductor manufacturer, TSMC, stated that it does not expect any significant impact on production. The typhoon is expected to move along the Chinese coast near Fujian on Friday, with Shanghai also expecting heavy rain.
  
• NATO fears a possible second term in office for Donald Trump, whose first presidency placed a heavy burden on the alliance due to his unpredictable nature. Trump's statements about only defending paying countries and the threat to give Russia free rein have alarmed NATO. The new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte praised Trump for increased defense spending, which some see as a direct message to Trump. There are discussions within NATO about how to “Trump-proof” the alliance, but experts doubt that this is entirely possible if the US adopts an isolationist or polarizing stance under Trump.
  
• Volkswagen and IG Metall were unable to reach an agreement in the second round of collective bargaining. VW is demanding a 10% pay cut and the waiving of special payments in order to ensure competitiveness. IG Metall rejects this as “unacceptable” and speaks of a “poison list” of savings. The peace obligation ends on December 1, after which warning strikes are possible. VW has reported a 63.7% drop in profits in the third quarter and plans to close at least three plants in Germany.
  
• The UK has a new budget - including ~£40bn of tax increases. Among them: The new rule that private pension funds and life insurance policies will also be subject to inheritance tax.
• Inflation rate: surprising rise in October According to the Federal Statistical Office, the inflation rate in Germany rose to 2% in October. Prices for services such as package tours and insurance rose in particular - food also became more expensive. (DESTATIS)
• Restructuring case: VW crisis at a glance Yesterday, Europe's largest car manufacturer had to announce that profits in Q3 had plummeted by 64%. It is the worst crisis since the diesel scandal - because costs are now to be radically cut, the battle for plants and jobs is intensifying. In an overview worth reading, manager-magazin explains who is on which side - and why. (MM)
• All-time high: Gold costs $2,789/ounce The price of gold has been soaring for three weeks now, reaching a new high yesterday. The price is being driven by speculation of falling interest rates - and the uncertain outcome of the US election. (MIN)
• Siemens: Buys US software company Altair It was made official yesterday evening: Siemens is to acquire US simulation software specialist Altair. The German industrial conglomerate will pay $113 per Altair share, valuing the Michigan-based company at $10.6 billion, according to a press release. (SIEM)
• RTL: Considers partial sale of Fremantle production unit Europe's largest TV broadcaster is considering the merger or sale of its stake in the Fremantle production unit, which is valued at around €1.9 billion. Background: In view of the declining demand for TV content, RTL is rethinking its strategy for the unit specializing in linear TV. (FIN)
• Crisis battery manufacturer Northvolt: sells JV share to Volvo The ailing Swedish battery manufacturer Northvolt has stopped making payments to the joint venture with Volvo Cars. Instead, Northvolt wants to invest the money in its own production. Volvo now wants to assert buyback rights to purchase Northvolt's shares. (RT)
• OneMain Holdings exceeds earnings expectations with earnings per share of USD 1.26, but misses sales expectations with USD 1.15 billion.
• Caterpillar reports third quarter declines in all segments, with earnings per share of $5.17 and revenue of $16.1 billion, missing expectations.
• Otis Worldwide falls short of expectations, reporting earnings per share of $0.96 on sales of $3.55 billion.
• Parsons exceeds expectations with earnings per share of USD 0.95 and sales of USD 1.81 billion, which corresponds to year-on-year growth of 27.5%.
• Bio-Techne reports earnings per share of USD 0.42 and exceeds sales forecasts with USD 287.16 million.
• Trane Technologies increases sales and earnings and reports earnings per share of 3.37 US dollars on sales of 5.44 billion US dollars, which exceeds the forecast.
• Snap reports a 15 % increase in revenue to USD 1.37 billion, while daily user numbers grow by 9 % to 443 million.
• Gold is shining particularly brightly at the moment and is even outperforming the stock markets
• DAX: Declines - Volkswagen share up slightly despite profit slump (MM) 
• Economic slump: Labor market also burdened - no autumn revival (TAG) 
• BASF: Dampens expectations - also because the car crisis is having an impact (HB) 
• Daimler Truck: Has to write off millions in China (MM) 
• Allianz: Allegedly interested in British insurance group Esure (RT)
• US economy: Continues to grow strongly - by an annualized 2.8% in Q3 (CNBC) 
• China: Will “not accept” EU tariffs on e-cars (ZON) 
• Microsoft & Meta: Q3 results beat analysts' expectations (FT) 
• UBS: Big bank earned twice as much as expected in Q3 (WP) 
• EY: Auditor refuses to certify tech company “Super Micro” - shares fall by 35% (CNBC)
• The insolvent company “Tupperware” can be sold to its lenders - this was decided by a US court yesterday. The brand will not (yet) disappear from the shelves.